When Piotr Lowinski, a senior climatologist at the European Climate Centre warned that Europe’s early November snow could be a harbinger of a tougher winter, cities from Paris to Dublin were already scrambling to clear a few centimeters of white that turned streets into parking lots.
Last week, parts of the continent saw their first heavy snowfall of the 2024‑2025 season. The United Kingdom, Ireland and France all issued severe weather warnings as snow depths of 2‑3 cm piled up in places that rarely see any at all. In Paris, the capital that usually enjoys a dusting of snow in spring, traffic snarled, trams stalled and commuters were left waiting for hours.
Why this snowfall is out of the ordinary
In November, snow is more of a novelty than a norm for most of western Europe. The UK Met Office last issued an amber snow warning in November 2010 – a storm dubbed the ‘Siberian Express’ that brought weeks of easterly winds and temperatures plunging to between –10 °C and –20 °C across the UK and Ireland.
Since then, the only comparable event was in November 2021 when a handful of stations recorded just over 2 cm of snow. That gives us a sense of how rare a November snowstorm of any significance truly is.
What makes this week’s event different is the timing. An Arctic blast that broke a long‑standing high‑pressure block over the continent forced a deep upper trough to develop, injecting polar air southward and setting the stage for a series of rapid‑moving winter storms.
- Average November snowfall for Paris over the past 30 years: 0.2 cm.
- Recorded snowfall in Paris on 22 Nov 2024: 3 cm.
- UK Met Office amber warning last issued: 12 Nov 2010.
- Temperature drop during 2010 ‘Siberian Express’: –10 °C to –20 °C.
- Projected snowfall for Slovakia (23‑24 Nov 2024): 5‑20 cm.
Cities caught off guard: Paris, London and beyond
The impact was most visible in Paris. Though the city’s public works crews are equipped for occasional flurries, they had never before tackled a scenario where even a thin layer of snow halted the Metro entirely. “A single centimetre on boulevards like the Champs‑Élysées is enough to bring traffic to a standstill,” said Sophie Marchand, a senior transport analyst at Météo‑France. “The trains can’t grip the rails, and drivers quickly lose traction.”
London fared slightly better thanks to its more robust gritting fleet, but even there, the odd snow‑covered roundabout caused minor pile‑ups. In Dublin, a few schools cancelled classes, and the Irish Meteorological Service issued a Level 2 warning for the first time in a decade.
In contrast, alpine regions such as Bavaria, the French Alps and Scotland were ready. Their mountain‑road crews have multi‑season contracts for snowplows and salt, so they kept highways open while tourists enjoyed fresh powder lifts.
Expert analysis: Lowinski, the Met Office and climate trends
Speaking to reporters on 24 Nov 2024, Lowinski reminded audiences that the 2010 cold spell was an outlier even before the current wave of warming. “Back then, global average temperatures were already climbing, but we were still within a range that allowed a prolonged Arctic intrusion,” he explained. “Today, the baseline is higher, so staying that cold for weeks becomes statistically unlikely.”
The Met Office’s chief forecaster, Dr. Helen Briggs, echoed that sentiment. “Our models show a higher probability of short, intense bursts of snow rather than a lingering winter,” she said. “That means more disruption in short windows – exactly what we observed in Paris and London.”
Both experts agreed that the current pattern is driven by a “blocking high” that finally gave way to a Rossby wave trough, a classic trigger for rapid winter storms. The question now is whether this will repeat or if the jet stream will settle into a milder regime for the rest of the season.
Forecasts for the rest of the season: Slovakia and the Alpine belt
Slovakia’s meteorological agency, the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMÚ), issued a first‑level snow warning for the entire country from 23:00 GMT on 23 Nov to 11:00 GMT on 25 Nov. The institute predicts 5‑15 cm of snow across most regions, with up to 20 cm in the central highlands.
According to the agency’s hourly model, the heaviest band will sweep through between 01:00 and 04:00 GMT on 24 Nov, potentially dumping more than 4 cm per hour. Residents in Bratislava were advised to keep windows shut and avoid non‑essential travel.
Meanwhile, the northern Alps are already seeing 10‑30 cm accumulations as the first storm of the season rolls from France through Austria. Ski resorts are reopening early, but lower‑lying valleys remain vulnerable to icy roads and sudden snowdrifts.
What this could mean for Europe’s winter
So, does this early snow spell a harsher winter? The consensus among climatologists is cautious. While the immediate disruptions are evident, long‑term projections suggest a trend toward milder, wetter winters in western Europe, punctuated by occasional sharp cold snaps.
Lowinski summed it up: “If we see another deep trough this month, we could get another round of snow, but the overall energy budget of the season is still trending upward.” In practice, that means city planners may need to refine snow‑removal protocols for unexpected early events, while households should stay ready for sudden power‑line icing that can happen even with modest snow depths.
For now, commuters across the continent are keeping an eye on the morning forecasts, and governments are urging drivers to carry winter tyres even in November. The early snowfall may be a reminder that, despite a warming world, Europe’s weather can still surprise us when we least expect it.
Key Facts
- First heavy snowfall of the 2024‑2025 European winter arrived in mid‑November.
- Paris recorded 3 cm of snow, causing Metro shutdowns and traffic chaos.
- UK Met Office’s last amber snow warning was in November 2010.
- Slovakia forecast 5‑20 cm of snow with a national warning in effect.
- Experts say climate warming makes prolonged cold spells less likely, but short, intense snow events may become more common.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Paris experience such severe disruption from a relatively small amount of snow?
Paris’ urban infrastructure isn’t built for snow. The city’s drainage system, narrow streets and reliance on electric trams mean that even a centimetre of snow can coat surfaces, reduce friction and overload the power grid, leading to halted public transport and gridlocked traffic.
How does the November 2024 snowfall compare to the 2010 ‘Siberian Express’?
The 2010 event lasted several weeks, produced sustained sub‑zero temperatures (‑10 °C to ‑20 °C) and brought widespread snowfall of several centimetres across the UK and Ireland. This year’s snow was more fleeting – heavy bursts lasting a few hours – but still unusual for November. It suggests a shift from long‑lasting cold spells to short, sharper bursts.
What are the forecasts for the rest of the winter season across Europe?
Models indicate a series of fast‑moving low‑pressure systems will continue to bring sporadic snow to the Alps, the Balkans and parts of Central Europe. Western low‑land areas, including the UK and France, are expected to see occasional flurries but milder temperatures overall, consistent with a warming climate trend.
How are authorities preparing for possible future snow events?
Several countries have already issued national snow warnings and mobilised emergency crews. In Slovakia, the SHMÚ activated a first‑level warning and pre‑positioned gritting trucks. The UK Met Office recommends drivers fit winter tyres early and municipalities are reviewing street‑clearing contracts to improve response times.
What does this early snowfall tell us about climate change and winter weather?
While a warmer climate reduces the odds of long, deep winter freezes, it also increases atmospheric moisture, which can fuel brief but intense snowstorms. Experts like Lowinski stress that such events are becoming more “flashy” – sudden, disruptive, but not necessarily indicative of a harsher overall winter.
